Issue #00011 : January 29, 2026

Hello readers.

Greetings from Florida, where even here there is no escape from the cold, with temperatures expected to plummet to 31°F. When the Sunshine State gets this chilly, iguanas literally fall from the sky. Cold-blooded creatures can’t regulate their body heat, so they freeze mid-grip and drop from trees. They’re not dead—just immobilized until conditions improve. Makes me think of our industry in January during this US housing crisis. Only we seem to be stuck in a perma-freeze. 

Coming out of Paris, there is so much optimism for a return to the glory years of 2021-2022. Even my most upbeat colleagues have felt demand soften over the last couple of years. But the thaw is almost here. Maybe we can’t feel it in freezing Florida, but it is coming. 

A reader pointed out that several stories from a recent Mr. Thread newsletter showed up in a major trade publication a few weeks later. I’m flattered. But remember you get the freshest intel here first. 

Keep reading to find out what the average interior designer earns, how to buy furniture that lasts a thousand years, and what friction-maxxing is all about.

And remember, never count out a frozen Floridian reptile: they can snap back to life suddenly—and bite!

See you next week.

How does your salary stack up?
The American Society of Interior Designers just released its Compensation & Benefits Guide, and here’s what you need to know: employment in interior design increased 18% from October 2019 to March 2025, adding about 7,800 jobs. The median salary for interior designers in the US sits at $71,430, with most surveyed designers earning between $75,000 and $99,999.

The Bureau of Labor Statistics predicts just 3% growth over the next decade, and median salaries increased a modest 2.1% year-over-year—barely keeping pace with inflation.

For context: a tweet making the rounds shows that a car wash manager at a large Texas gas station earns more than $125,000. Assistant general managers at the same joint pull $100,000 to $150,000. That’s more money than some doctors earn in Europe.

For designers looking to scale their income, the secret isn’t just “getting better at design” or “finding more clients”—it’s mastering positioning. Most designers are stuck in a loop of low-paying gigs because they fail to align their unique value with a market segment willing to pay a premium for it.

Unless you’re in the AD100, the money in design isn’t handed to you; you are always sweating to get the next project. You can either learn to communicate your worth, or hope to get lucky. But ask yourself: would you rather do the hard work of sales and marketing, or hose down pickup trucks in the Fort Worth heat?

Blood in the water at Chairish
Auction Technology Group just rejected its 12th takeover bid in four months from FitzWalter Capital, its largest shareholder. The drama centers on ATG’s August $85 million acquisition of Chairish, the California-based online marketplace for vintage furniture and antiques. ATG, which owns LiveAuctioneers, saw the deal as instant access to Chairish’s vast customer base and inventory. FitzWalter calls it mismanagement.

The stock dropped 22% post-acquisition and hasn’t recovered. FitzWalter claims Chairish was “loss-making” with “flat revenues since COVID” and cost $15 million in integration fees. ATG counters it’s a long-term play being sold short. Under UK law, FitzWalter must submit a formal bid by February 2. When private equity makes a dozen offers, they smell blood. Watch this space.

Interior design marketplaces are notoriously difficult to build. Even major players like 1stDibs and Material Bank have stalled on growth. The challenge is massive—product comes from thousands of tiny producers worldwide. Standardizing it and making it searchable is brutally hard.

For vintage furniture, art, and antiques, the problem is already solved. The real opportunity is wallpapers, fabrics, contemporary furniture, accessories, and the thousands of other products that make our industry rich. Whoever figures that out will print money.

Consumer confidence index is worst since 2014
Consumer confidence has plunged to its lowest level since 2014.

The labor-market differential—the gap between consumers who think jobs are “plentiful” versus “hard to get”—collapsed from 8.4 to 3.1 in a single month.

For our industry, this matters because interior design is discretionary spending. When consumers feel uncertain, renovation budgets get delayed. Combine this with struggling luxury stocks and you’ve got headwinds. We need confidence to recover before the boom times return.

Trump seizes control of LA wildfire rebuild
Speaking of brave recovery plans, President Trump has signed an executive order putting FEMA in charge of California wildfire reconstruction, bypassing local officials. The fires destroyed 12,000 homes with total losses between $76 billion and $131 billion.

The order streamlines federal permitting—builders can self-certify compliance instead of navigating local bottlenecks. Preliminary regulations are due in 30 days.

Whether you think Trump or Newsom is right doesn’t matter. This is the largest residential reconstruction project in California history, and the approval process just got faster. 

If you’re positioned for reconstruction work, start building contractor relationships now.

Fed holds rates
If you were hoping for lower interest rates to help thaw out the housing market, well, you may have to wait. 

On Wednesday, the Federal Reserve held rates steady at 3.5–3.75% for the first time since July—two governors dissented, preferring cuts. Federal Reserve Chair Jerome Powell called the economy “solid” and unemployment “stabilizing,” upgrading language from December’s “moderate” assessment. But he flagged housing market weakness.

LVMH’s rough quarter signals no relief ahead
LVMH posted a 3% drop in fourth-quarter organic sales at its fashion and leather goods division—worse than expected. The outlook for 2026 offers no relief.

This marks the first time since the 2008 financial crisis that luxury has shrunk for two consecutive years. Most groups are capping price increases under 2% this year, forcing them to sell volume instead. LVMH is betting on aspirational shoppers with Louis Vuitton beauty and bag charms priced from $850 to $1,810.

Call me an optimist, but I’m still predicting a major rebound. The appetite for luxury has been going strong since the days of the ancient Egyptians. I don’t see two down years erasing millennia of growth—they just reset the field for the next cycle.

Home Depot cuts 800 jobs
The DIY giant just laid off 800 workers—150 at Atlanta headquarters, the rest in remote roles, mostly tech—and ordered all corporate employees back to the office five days a week starting April 6. CEO Ted Decker says it’s about “speed and agility.”

The real story: Home Depot’s sales have been softer than expected for three straight quarters. The company is waiting for housing turnover to pick up after the pandemic boom faded. Higher mortgage rates and economic uncertainty have consumers postponing big home improvement projects.

For our industry, this is a leading indicator. When Home Depot struggles, it signals that renovation spending is weak. The stock is down 10% over the past year while the S&P gained 15%.

Home Depot reports fiscal fourth-quarter earnings February 24. Watch those numbers—they’ll tell you whether the spring selling season looks promising or if the slowdown continues.

Worth its weight
Gold just crossed $5,000 per ounce for the first time. Rising gold prices are a warning signal. When investors pile into gold, they’re fleeing risk and seeking safety. Gold’s sudden rise is a clear sign that money is scared. Definitely something to keep a close eye on. 

IKEA’s play-centered collection
As the saying goes, the family who plays together, stays together.

IKEA just released Grejsimojs, a 33-piece collection built around one premise: families want more play at home, and current interiors don’t deliver it. While I’m not usually a fan of IKEA’s “fast fashion” approach to furniture, I found this collection to be exceptionally clever and cute.

It’s all research based. IKEA’s Play Report found families crave shared play moments but lack the objects that invite them. These new pieces are designed to reduce stress and strengthen connection through tactile, interactive design—something screens can’t replicate. 

Designer Akanksha Deo’s cushions work for adults hosting dinner and kids stacking them into forts. Interior brands and furniture designers should pay attention. Playful, interaction-first design is an untapped positioning strategy for families and young adults who want homes that surprise them. IKEA just proved there’s a market for it at scale.

I’m currently working with a “Neuroarchitect” on the design of a new showroom to display our textile collections. We will literally be measuring heart and stress levels inside our spaces to ensure the design is making you feel something. As AI saturates design, measuring how spaces actually make people feel will become the new competitive edge. Spaces that bring families together are a great place to start!

When an earthquake destroys an entire craft economy
On New Year’s Day 2024, a 7.5-magnitude earthquake leveled Wajima, Japan, aka the Holy Land of Lacquerware. The quake displaced hundreds of master artisans including Living National Treasures. The damage exposed how fragile craft economies really are: 700 artisans lost their home workshops, 14% of families left permanently, and two-thirds of remaining workers are over 60.

The Japanese government spent $8.5 million building 85 emergency lacquer studios, but according to the New York Times, the temporary spaces can’t replicate what made Wajima special—“the whole city functioned almost as an interconnecting studio,” said Masami Yamada, the Victoria & Albert Museum’s curator of Japanese art. Each piece requires 100+ steps and a retinue of specialists working in sequence.

International interest in lacquerware is surging (the Victoria & Albert Museum opens a major lacquer exhibition in April), but domestic demand keeps declining. Young Japanese people aren’t buying kogei (“koh-gay”), apartments lack traditional display alcoves, and “the speed of contemporary culture is light years removed from the patience required.”

Natural disasters keep disrupting our industry’s supply chains. I just read this New Yorker piece about how American wildfires are destroying fine wines—smoke is making entire vintages taste like ashtrays, and there’s no fix once it sets in.

Here’s the opportunity: designers who master craft storytelling build serious margins. That lacquer bowl becomes a story your client tells at dinner parties. The challenge is communicating wabi-sabi to demanding Americans. For brands with showrooms: fly to Japan, find these artisans, and bring their work stateside before someone else does.

Stranger than friction
Architectural Digest is championing “friction-maxxing”—the internet’s latest term for doing things the hard way. For design, that means taping out furniture footprints before buying, getting multiple contractor bids instead of hiring the first responder, and acquiring pieces in stages over months or years rather than executing an overnight Pinterest board.

The business case is simple. Custom pieces become heirlooms. Slower builds create personality. And clients who understand the value of craft pay for quality, not speed. This may sound like how the luxury interior market has worked for decades: intentional thinking.

I am all in on this trend as I’ve always believed the path between “good” and “beautiful” is a long and friction-filled road.

Where the smart money is moving—and how to get there first.

Downtown Manhattan’s new $200 million opportunity
A mystery buyer just went into contract on multiple units at 80 Clarkson totaling $129 million—the priciest home sale ever in downtown Manhattan. The West Village development has a projected sellout north of $2 billion across 112 units.

Let me do the math. If interior budgets run a conservative 10% of purchase price, that’s $200 million of furniture, fabric and design work about to hit the market. Who is going to be the first to break the door down on this project?

For designers: your way in isn’t only Instagram, it’s brokers and contractors. In buildings like this, these folks routinely recommend designers to international buyers who are new to New York. (I bet our record-breaking buyers are from Russia). If they don’t know you, you don’t exist. Start building those relationships now.

For product brands: identify which designers are winning these commissions and establish relationships early. The best time isn’t after install—it’s when designers land big projects and need reliable partners fast. Buildings like 80 Clarkson spike opportunity as they near completion. You snooze, you lose.

Billion-dollar home-builders: your next client?
D.R. Horton just posted a 30% profit drop—$594.8 million down from $844.9 million year-over-year—as affordability constraints hammer new home demand. The massive homebuilder is offering aggressive incentives and mortgage buydowns to move inventory, cutting into margins.

Here’s what piqued my interest: D.R. Horton sold tens of thousands of entry-level and first-time move-up homes last quarter alone. I’m guessing most are pretty forgettable, design-wise. And that’s the opportunity. Even one small contract with a company operating at this scale could be insanely lucrative for a furniture maker or interior designer with something unique to offer.

Our industry has latent demand everywhere. The question is: how do we tap into it? If these homes are getting built anyway, shouldn’t someone at least try to make them beautiful? Even entry-level home buyers desire beauty.

The key is understanding what D.R. Horton actually needs. They’re publicly traded—they need growth without blowing up unit economics. If you can figure out how to plug that hole, you’ve got a pitch.

Alternatively, play the long game. Stalk them on LinkedIn. Make connections with people at the company. Build relationships and work your way up. Worst-case scenario, you learn something valuable. Best-case? You hit a pot of gold.

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