Issue #00002 : November 20th, 2025

The rich keep getting richer. While the rest of the market struggles with housing affordability and economic uncertainty, the ultra-wealthy are building a parallel world of total luxury. But let’s be pragmatic here—these ultra-high-net-worth individuals represent a significant portion of our customer base.

And this divide isn’t just theoretical, I’m seeing it play out in real time. I had a conversation with my accountant this week. He's a real character, straight out of The Sopranos, except instead of mobsters, he represents tons of New York City’s top interior designers. He painted an interesting picture: there's a widening gap in the industry. The top tier is thriving, pulling in serious money. But everyone else is struggling.

Restoration Hardware is citing the worst housing crisis in 50 years. Home Depot's down. Millennials are drowning in housing costs, filling rentals with cheap furniture instead of investing in pieces built to last. The market's giving mixed signals. But I'm not writing this to doom-scroll with you. I'm writing because I see enormous opportunities.

This industry thrives on movement. When the housing market is frozen, we feel it. And right now, for the first time in years, there's a real conversation happening in Washington about unfreezing the biggest bottleneck in residential real estate.

Things are looking up. Maximalism is surging. Sparse minimalism is dying. Clients want meaning, provenance, and stories they can tell over martinis. New markets like Saudi Arabia are opening up. NYC is finally fixing its scaffolding problem and getting more beautiful. And if portable mortgages actually happen? We're looking at a flood of transactions—and every transaction is a client.

Keep reading to see what else is shaking up the industry this week.

See you next week.

Restoration Hardware is still down. In its latest Q2 earnings, RH cites the worst housing crisis in 50 years. CEO Gary Friedman points out a brutal stat: in 1978, 4.09 million existing homes sold with a U.S. population of 223 million. Last year, 4.06 million homes sold with 341 million people. That's how depressed turnover is. Once again, they missed analyst estimates. But in typical RH fashion, they continue selling the dream.

Home Depot is down hard, but Lowe's beat projections. It’s hard to tell how much this means for our industry—HD's drop may just be due to the historically low storm season this year. Cruel to say, but it's true: natural disasters are good for the home industry. Insurance money rebuilds and refurnishes homes.

Arhaus is doing well—they reported strong Q3 earnings. Williams-Sonoma had another great quarter, too. More good news—not for the luxury design market, but for broader consumer confidence in home goods. Tariffs don't seem to be impacting demand, as confirmed by Wayfair's solid stock performance. But furniture tariffs are expected to rise another 5% on January 1, 2026. So we’ll see.

Meanwhile, 1stDibs is up close to 15% over the last five days. A company I've been critical of for years—too many missed opportunities, including the failed Design Manager acquisition. But their shares jumped after a solid earnings beat, and honestly, I'm quietly rooting for them. Every designer I know uses 1stDibs for purchasing or inspiration. Here's hoping they continue to climb and find new ways to bring value to our industry.

According to the Wall Street Journal, the top 0.1% now control $23.3 trillion in the U.S.—up from $10.7 trillion a decade ago. And they're not spending it on things. They're spending it on privacy.

The ultra-rich want to consciously uncouple from all the inconvenient parts of civilization: lines, crowds, traffic, strangers, and anything resembling waiting. Privacy isn't a perk anymore. It's the product.

For the design industry, this is mission-critical. Because if you want to serve this tier, you're not selling beauty, you're selling distance.

Homes for the ultra-wealthy must be designed as micro-resorts: private pools, private gyms, massage rooms, hidden staff circulation, car elevators so they never see another resident. Material choices matter too—acoustics, soft textiles, quiet luxury.

Bottom line: Designers must think about "friction removal." Everything must be automated, concealed, private. We must all learn this new design language.

A new Credit Karma survey reveals that 23% of homeowners regret their purchase—jumping to 38% among Millennials. The top reason being they “underestimated the ongoing costs” like maintenance and property taxes. While 54% of Americans still believe the "American Dream" of homeownership is attainable, 40% of Millennial homeowners say they've “delayed or changed other life goals because of housing costs.”

This is creating a rental boom that Barron’s describes as "an opportunity for the home-furnishings industry." But here's the problem: renters don't buy expensive furniture. They fill apartments with cheap, disposable stuff, which explains why companies like Williams-Sonoma and Wayfair are thriving—mass-market wins when people can't afford to invest in pieces built to last. For the luxury side of our industry, this is a headwind.

Portable mortgages. If you haven't heard the term yet, you will. The Trump administration is floating the idea of letting homeowners pack up their mortgage rates and take them to their next house. Yes, really. Transfer your 3% rate from 2021 straight to that new build with no 7% sticker shock.

And if this actually happens? It's one of the biggest housing-market shakeups in decades.

Here's what a portable mortgage means: instead of taking out a brand-new loan when you move, you transfer your existing mortgage (and your low,low existing rate) to your new pad. Sounds simple, but it's not. The logistics are a nightmare, and experts are already warning it could potentially drive rates higher for everyone else.

But let's say they figure it out.

Suddenly, the millions of homeowners handcuffed to their current homes because they locked in sub-4% rates can move. And they will move. When people move, they don't just change their address. They change everything: New furniture, new rugs, new lighting, new everything. Those are the projects that keep our world spinning.

I've been in this business for 30 years, and I'll tell you what drives revenue for designers, manufacturers, and everyone in between: complete renovations. Not touch-ups. Not the third refresh of the same living room. New homes—that's where the money is.

If portable mortgages unlock housing mobility, we're looking at a flood of transactions. Every transaction is a potential client. But nobody knows if any of this will happen, or when, or how messy the rollout will be.

The Big Picture: If the housing market finally unfreezes from its 50-year lows, our industry could be in for the Golden Age I’ve been predicting. The signs are good: the WSJ just announced that home sales hit an eight-month high in October, rising 1.2% to 4.1 million units. The national median home price hit $415,200, up 2.1% from last year. Inventory stood at 1.52 million homes—up 10.9% year-over-year but still 300,000 units short of pre-COVID levels.

AD PRO just dropped their 2026 Interior Design Forecast, and the message is clear: “maximalist touchpoints and artisanal details will define luxury interiors.” The pendulum has swung hard away from the Apple Store aesthetic.

I read another obituary to minimalism in the 1stDibs Guide to 2025 Interior Design Trends. The annual poll—eight years running now—shows a hard swing toward all-out, no-apologies maximalism. The designers have spoken: "My clients are tired of the stripped-back, bare-bones house with the sinuous white sofa and a few 'approved' vintage designer chairs," says Summer Thornton.

Here's what I see: this trend signals a premiumization of interior design. Clients are willing to spend more, but they want meaning. The "luxury" is shifting from shiny-new to curated-old and bespoke-new. They want provenance. They want a story they can tell over martinis.

But here's the catch: this look demands more storytelling and authenticity from designers. If you just slap an “antique” label on something without depth, clients will see right through it. It reads as faux-vintage décor, and they'll tune out.

One of my companies is a 100-year-old heritage brand. The power of our story is what elevates our product from beauty alone to beauty and meaning. That's the difference.

In the age of AI—when everything can be generated and mass-produced in seconds—we're all looking for the human story to feel connection. That's not going away. I see this trend continuing to pick up steam.

Let's see if these trends are reflected in Pantone's Color of the Year, which drops December 3. This has always been a polarizing topic. Most designers I meet bristle at “color of the year.” They are the artists—they determine color of the year. “Color of the year” just complicates their jobs as their clients start asking for these colors just because they’re “in trend.” Forbes reports that designers are already predicting that the color of the year will be a shade of green. Let’s see if they’re right.

I've been following @studiocognitivepulse for a while now, and they just keep getting better. They're a 3D visualization studio that renders architectural ideas in photorealistic detail. It blows me away.

Here's the reality: if you can't help clients visualize their dream, your sales will suffer. Most clients don't understand why great design costs money. But when you show the thinking—sketches, iterations, material tests, 3D renderings—you're not just showing work. You're showing value.

Process renderings make people think, “If they put this much thought into a sketch, imagine what they'll do for my home.” Design is invisible until it's finished, and that makes clients nervous. Visuals calm them down and build credibility before you even speak.

Most designers I talk to—the ones who are really growing—are building these high-tech renders into their project flow. It's becoming more of a necessity than a luxury.

But you need to make the renders your own. Partner with one of the many solopreneurs doing this work. Studio Cognitive Pulse does a great job, and there are plenty more out there.

Bottom line: use these guys or someone like them to render your client pitches. Show the vision and close the deal.

Saudi Arabia has been in the news this week. Crown Prince Mohammed bin Salman made a state visit, they're reportedly trying to buy Warner Bros., and the Saudis continue rolling out the red carpet for global business—human-rights record notwithstanding.

Milan's iconic Salone del Mobile is now opening an outpost in Saudi Arabia. I've been attending for the last 10 years, and if you've been, you know the draw: designers and brands from all over the world descend on Milan every year. If the organizers see a big enough opportunity to invest in a Saudi trade show, maybe we should take the country seriously too.

Salone presents the best of Italian and global design. But what makes it special isn't just the convention center—it's Milan itself. Incredible designers and brands take over Milan, creating inspiring visions for the future of design across the entire city.

If you haven't been, don't miss it.

For those courageous enough to think outside the box and take on new markets, Saudi Arabia should be at the top of your list heading into next year.

I've lived and worked in New York City most of my life, and scaffolding has become a scourge on the city. This is the biggest design market in the world, yet our buildings are marred by dark, ugly passageways that dominate the streetscape and block natural light from reaching pedestrians below.

Now, the New York City Department of Buildings has approved six new designs for sidewalk scaffolding created by architecture studio PAU and engineering firm Arup. These designs will replace the current tunnel-like structures that have been in use since the 1980s. Bravo.

We need more beauty in the world.

I heard a podcast this week with Wolfgang Hammer, a film producer who created House of Cards. He brilliantly breaks down the power of storytelling and how to use it to build your world.

All I could think about was how it applies to our business. The companies that really set themselves apart are the ones with powerful stories. I’m not talking about clever copy from a marketing agency, but real stories about where the materials come from, who makes them, why they matter. Clients don't just buy furniture, they buy meaning. And if you can't give them that story, someone else will.

Thanks for reading. See you next week!